There’s a new pollster on the block, so no track record. But an interesting technique
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TARGETSMART AND WILLIAM & MARY RELEASE POLL OF OHIO LIKELY VOTERS
-Clinton 40, Trump 37 Latest Survey Shows-
September 26, 2016
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Hillary Clinton holds a narrow, 3-point lead over Donald Trump in Ohio, 40 to 37 percent, with 8 percent of voters supporting Gary Johnson, according to a new poll of likely voters released today by TargetSmart and William & Mary. Recently forming a partnership to produce original research in key battleground states, TargetSmart and William & Mary developed a unique approach to determining a “likely voter” model for this poll.
The research team first weighted the survey data to mirror all registered voters on the TargetSmart voter file, and then applied a second round of weights based solely on respondents’ likelihood to vote, as measured by TargetSmart’s General Election Turnout score, one of many predictive models
housed on the TargetSmart voter file. “Having the ability to use TargetSmart’s turnout score to weight the data takes much of the guesswork out of determining a likely voter model,” said Ron Rapoport, John Marshall Professor of Government at William & Mary.
It is 821 Likely voters, with a mix of telephone and online interviews. I’m a professor at William and Mary, and I know the professor involved — he is very solid and reliable (and the student quoted is in my class). But I know nothing of the technique they are using. Still, it’s nice to be up 3 in a state that some people falsely claimed the campaign is giving up on (Bill is there in a couple of days).