Last Time Gallup Right? 1984
Sun Sep 26, 2004 at 10:47:40 PM PDT
Last Time Gallup Right? 1984
1. 1984 was the last time Gallup got it right
2. 4 elections since then: 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000
3. They have been wrong outside the margin of error 3 out of 4 of those elections. Always underestimating DEM votes
4. The average difference between their final poll and the actual outcome was greater than the margin of error.
5. In 2000, as Dick Morris puts it, "All the polls were wrong except Zogby. Who said this about Zogby ? NewsMax
My favorite GALLUP LIES link
Just days before the last election Gallup was STILL LYING.
CNN poll: Bush maintains 7-point lead over Gore - October 29, 2000
In the past, the poll has shown Bush with at least 48 percent of support for five consecutive days, and Gore with no more than 43 percent during that same length of time
Gore won the election with 49% of the votes days later...
Curiously on their final 2000 poll, Gallup only had Gore trailing Bush by 2% (and they were still off by -2.4%)
Psy Ops + Marketing = Karl Rove
I believe what we are seeing here is the result of Rove's mastermind, plus techniques gathered from marketing and the military Psi Ops.
Remember when the Iraqi Information Minister said "There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!" while american tanks could be seen in the background of him ?
Bush was doing so lousy in the polls that a lot of GOPpies were abandoning the boat. So Rove pulled his favorite trick, manipulated polls, or so called Rove's Push Polls to tell a different story....
Why you should never trust Gallup.
From Kerry's board, A Quiz:
1 - When is the last time that Gallup accurately predicted the outcome of a presidential election?
2 - How many elections have there been since then?
3 - Of those elections that have been held since
their last accurate poll, how often has Gallup been wrong by 3% or more?
4 - Of those elections that have been held since their last accurate poll, what has been the average error between their final poll results and the actual outcome of the poll?
Answers:
1 - 1984 was the last time Gallup got it right
2 - Four - 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000
3 - They have been wrong outside the margin of
error 3 out of 4 of those elections
4 - The average difference between their final
poll and the actual outcome was greater than the margin of error
Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
2000 Bush 48.0 47.9 +0.1
Gore 46.0 48.4 -2.4
In 1984 (or so)Mr. Gallup died.
The highly esteemed polling company is now owned by a major GOP donor
they haven't "just" been wrong - they've often been projecting larger GOP totals than reality
Gee - now why might a GOP donor's company do that?
Are they biased or just incompetent? Either way - they are as wrong as W is.
by: its simple IF you ignore the complexity
Just days before the 2000 election Gallup was STILL LYING
CNN poll: Bush maintains 7-point lead over Gore - October 29, 2000
WASHINGTON (CNN) - GOP presidential candidate Texas Gov. George W. Bush continued to maintain an advantage over Democratic Vice President Al Gore in Sunday's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll.
Forty-nine percent of respondents said they supported Bush while 42 percent said they would vote for Gore, no change at all from Saturday's poll.
In the past, the poll has shown Bush with at least 48 percent of support for five consecutive days, and Gore with no more than 43 percent during that same length of time.
Curiously their final poll, days later only had Gore trailing Bush by 2%
2000: All the polls were wrong except Zogby
1 - In 2000, as Dick Morris puts it, "All the polls were wrong except Zogby.
2 - Of all the pollsters monitoring the 2000 election, Zogby made the most accurate prediction of the down-to-the-wire race for president
3 - In 1994 Zogby alone predicted that George Pataki would unseat then New York Gov. Mario Cuomo
4 - In 1996 Zogby accurately and solely predicted the ultimate margin of victory for Bill Clinton over Bob Dole in that year's presidential election.
Who said this about Zogby ? NewsMax
Not even GOP PR machines trust Gallup
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